Not So Extended

If you haven’t already seen it, check out the next Banned/Restricted announcement: http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/feature/95b

It contains some pretty stunning changes to the extended format which we are all taking time to digest. Essentially, by the time it is a PTQ format again, Extended will consist of everything from Lorwyn onwards. That means Kamigawa, Ravnica and Time Spiral blocks are going to be leaving us virtually at the same time as Mirrodin does. I don’t think anyone saw this coming, but the move makes sense from a tournament attendance point of view – I know I only played Extended once a year for PTQs, and if more people are going to play this new format I think it’s a good move. My only disappointment with this is that as someone who entered with Lorwyn, I’m never going to be able to play Ravnica cards in a sanctioned format short of Legacy. Ravnica still seems like the best block WotC have ever done.

But that’s beside the point! Change is here, change is now, and the witty trader has to adapt to keep ahead of the game. My collection will be suffering in terms of value  on shocklands and goyfs, but this is prime time for making quick gains as speculation runs wild over this exciting new format. Check out Jon Medina’s post here for his thoughts: http://mtgmetagame.com/r-i-p-extended-july-1st-2010/ and Kelly Reid’s list of speculative purchases here: http://www.quietspeculation.com/2010/06/holy-crap-double-standard.html

As for me, as soon as I got home I got on MODO and bought a dozen Mistbind Cliques and Windbrisk Heights, as well as some Reflecting Pools, Secluded Glens and Gilt-Leaf Palaces. I prefer to speculate on cheaper cards in bulk, as while Thoughtseize and and Cryptic Command have seen massive gains, %-wise my Cliques are thrashing them and I stand to lose less if they don’t go anywhere.

The next big question is when to sell speculative cards? I think there are three possible options:

In the next week: Latecomers will still be buying in and stores will be replenishing their stocks. You can make back your cash and a little bit of a profit, and move onto the next quick trade.

After the EXT pro tour: More risky, as if the deck you are betting on doesn’t do anything in Amsterdam you stand to lose out. There will be a lot of excitement about the format around this time, though, so if you have 100 Sunrise Sovereigns and Giants is the dominant deck at the PT, you will reap the rewards. (Note I do not advocate speculating on Sunrise Sovereign.)

At the beginning of the next PTQ season: The long-term option, this is likely to give the best return however you will have to hold the cards for six months. In season extended cards can fetch four times what they do off season, even recognised staples like shocklands.

I think a mixture of all three is the best course. Faeries cards are super-hyped at the moment, so cashing out of them shortly seems like a good plan. Sell enough to cover your purchases, and you’ll be liquid enough to jump on any other short term opportunities that pop-up. Hold some cards for the PT, and sell any that do well, using the funds to buy into any sleepers that turn up in and around the top-8. With this diverse portfolio you should stand to make a nice profit in January, while keeping your options open elsewhere in the meantime.

One more take-away from this announcement – nothing is guaranteed. Just like BP shareholders didn’t expect their stock value to tank overnight in the wake of the oil spill, so shockland owners didn’t expect this announcement. WotC cares about the health of the game, not the value of your collection, and they will act to ensure that health.* WotC could emergency-ban Jace in standard tomorrow, or reprint it as a normal rare in M11. Magic: The Gathering is not an investment, but that doesn’t mean you can’t turn a profit in the short term. My advice is stay liquid, keep your eyes peeled for every speck of news, and don’t go crying over spilled milk. Any change is good for speculators. Embrace it.

Anyway, when super-extended arrives you’ll be glad you have all those shocks and goyfs 😉

*(Unless you’re a legacy collector, in which case WotC got your back bro)

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The Price of Extended

I hope everyone had a very merry Christmas, I certainly did. I got plenty of Christmas cards but only one of the magical variety – a revised Scrubland! My GB deck is now GBw, featuring Knights of the Reliquary to find Cabal Coffers and Urborg. Here is the final summary of The Price of Extended, in which I’ll sort each deck by my rating based on what value I feel you get from the deck for its price. Note that even a one star rating still indicates a competitive extended deck, as all of these decks did well at the world championships – it just means that for a similar price you could get a more powerful deck, or in some cases a small automobile.

* * * * *  Thopter Control, $302.40

One of the format’s strongest decks, at a pretty reasonable price. This is the new (and seemingly only) face of extended control.

* * * * * Hypergenesis, $172.40

I was shocked at how cheap this powerhouse combo deck is. Doesn’t share a lot of cards with other decks, so if you pick Hypergenesis you will be back at square one if you change your mind.

* * * * Dredge, $333.00

By far the strongest combo if left unmolested, the hate is plentiful and varied. Reasonably priced, but doesn’t compare favourably to Hypergenesis in that department.

* * * Hexmage/Depths, $395

Quite a new combo that is strong enough to show up in Legacy. Plays a number of expensive but commonly played utility artifacts that push the price up.

* * * All-In Red, $196.95

Once again those Moxes and Chalices force up the price of this wannabe budget deck, this is a good choice for someone just starting in extended as driving it is dead easy once you know how to mulligan.

* * Bant, $645. 50

The first of the decks in this list that cost more than my car, thanks to that most overpowered of two drops, Tarmogoyf. The first aggro deck in the list.

* * Scapeshift, $227.25

Surprisingly pricey for a tier-2 combo deck, thanks to the high number of shocklands in its manabase. Those lands can be reused in other decks, however.

* * Dragonstorm, $153.00

The rogue choice and the cheapest deck in the list, it gets a low rating because of the distinct possibility that its not very good.

*  Rubin Zoo, $787.85

A pro tour winning midrange powerhouse, this rating is a reflection only on the absurd price of the deck.

So there we are. I expect to be taking a break from posting for a week or two, this series has been a lot of work! Positive feedback makes it all worthwhile so thanks everyone for your kind comments and support. Now go, be with your families, and see if you can borrow their Misty Rainforests for January 2!

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The Price of Extended: Dragonstorm

This last deck review should rightfully go to little/domain/traditional Zoo, based on its numerous succesful pilots on day 3 of Worlds. However I already know how that post would turn out – the deck costs a fortune because of its “three basics” manabase and Tarmogoyfs, and if you want to play a deck like that you will choose it or Bant or Rubin Zoo based on metagame concerns rather than the price. Instead, I present to you a blast from the past leveraging the most broken keyword mechanic ever printed…

Dragonstorm 2009

Nikolay Bogdev, 4-2
2009 World Championships, Extended

2  Cascade Bluffs (2x $3 = $6)
4  Dreadship Reef (4x$0.50 = $2)
2  Fungal Reaches (2x $0.50 = $1)
5  Island
1  Mountain
4  Scalding Tarn (4x $13 = $52)
4  Steam Vents (4x $7 = $28)
22 lands ($89)

4  Bogardan Hellkite (4x $2 = $8)
1  Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund ($2)
5 creatures    ($10)

4  Dragonstorm (4x $1.50 = $6)
3  Echoing Truth (3x $0.25 = $0.75)
2  Gigadrowse (3x $0.25 = $0.75)
4  Lotus Bloom (4x $4 = $16)
4  Ponder (4x $0.50 = $2)
4  Remand (4x $1.50 = $6)
4  Rite of Flame (4x $1 = $4)
4  Seething Song (4x $1 = $4)
4  Telling Time (4x $0.25 = $1)
33 other spells    ($41.50)

Maindeck (60 cards): $140.50

4  Blood Moon (4x $2 = $8)
1  Echoing Truth ($0.25)
2  Empty the Warrens (2x $0.25 = $0.50)
4  Firespout (4x $0.50 = $2)
1  Gigadrowse ($0.25)
3  Ravenous Trap (3x $0.50 = $1.50)
15 sideboard cards ($12.50)

Total, Main & Side: $153

For some reason this deck just won’t die! It dominated periods of Rav/TS standard and died with the rotation that brought in Lorwyn, before Chapin and Nassif took Worlds 07 by – no, I won’t do it, I’ll leave the horrible puns to LSV – with a mono-red redesign of the deck. Now it seems the deck still has the raw power to show up in extended at pro tour level, admittedly with only one pilot at 4-2. If you don’t know how it works already, basically the deck uses mana rituals and Lotus Blooms to build up to 9 mana and a storm count of 4 or so, then casts Dragonstorm to fetch out enough Bogardan Hellkites to kill the opponent immediately, or Hellkites & Karrthus to win with a hasty dragon assault. Gigadrowse replicated half a dozen times on your opponents end step removes any ability to resist, and the rest of the deck essentially finds the combo.

This is certainly not a “deck to beat”, in fact it is probably not even a dark horse, as I haven’t seen any discussion of it since Worlds. It is a much slower combo than Hypergenesis or Dredge, but it does have certain advantages – it isnt vulnerable to graveyard hate or Blood Moon, and Chalice should have minimal impact. Ethersworn Canonist would cause problems but that is not seeing a lot of play. This resistance to commonly played hate cards is very helpful, as it lets Dragonstorm get off its combo unmolested if it survives until the big turn.

The largest expense in the deck is by far the R/U lands, making up half the cost by themselves. Beyond that most of the cards are pocket change by extended standards (now there’s an awkward phrase for a magic article), and this deck comes in easily the cheapest of the series. Even if this deck doesn’t work out, the Tarns and Vents can find a place in plenty of others, like Dredge and Scapeshift. Dragonstorm needs a lot more testing before I can say anything definitive about its viability, but if you want to ‘go rogue’ on January 2nd without actually brewing up a deck this could be the one for you!

Bang for your Buck: * *

Cheap as chips as far as extended decks go, but not enough evidence of its “bang” yet to go with the buck.

The marathon is nearly at an end! Thanks everyone for reading, for advertising and for the positive feedback, it has made it all worthwhile 🙂 Expect a summary post with revised ratings sometime this weekend, and then a short posting hiatus while I recharge my writing batteries. Enjoy your holiday season folks, as always you can catch my musings on twitter @rtassicker or check out some other great writers in the links to the right.

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The Price of Extended: Scapeshift

Another day, another extended combo deck – today we’re looking at Scapeshift, which I hope will offer a truly budget choice for extended. I’ve been playing the standard version as noted in a previous post, and it is dirt cheap to assemble!

A couple of people have questioned the highly scientific “Bang for your Buck” rating system, as I’ve only given out 3s, 4s and 5s so far. Once I’ve completed my survey of the top extended decks (tomorrow!) I will be revising my ratings and posting my conclusions, probably on the weekend. I’m expecting one or two decks to creep up to five star status and a couple to slip down to two or even one star, and I encourage everyone to chip in with their own value ratings when that post arrives!

Scapeshift Combo

Shi Tian Lee, 5-1
2009 World Championships, Extended

1  Breeding Pool ($10)
2  Forest
2  Island
4  Misty Rainforest (4x $12 = $48)
3  Mountain
1  Scalding Tarn ($13)
4  Steam Vents (4x $7 = $28)
4  Stomping Ground (4x $9 = $36)
2  Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle (2x $1 = $2)
23 lands ($137)

4  Sakura-Tribe Elder (4x $0.50 = $2)
4 creatures ($2)

3  Condescend (3x 0.25 = $0.75)
2  Harrow (2x $0.50 = $1)
2  Magma Jet (2x $1.50 = $3)
4  Peer Through Depths (4x $0.25 = $1)
4  Ponder (4x $0.50 = $2)
4  Remand (4x $1.50 = $6)
2  Repeal (2x $0.25 = $0.50)
4  Rewind (4x $0.50 = $2)
4  Scapeshift (4x $2.50 = $10)
4  Search for Tomorrow (4x $0.25 = $1)
33 other spells ($27.25)

Maindeck (60 cards): $166.25

3  Chalice of the Void (3x $9 = $27)
2  Engineered Explosives (2x $13 = $26)
2  Firespout (2x $0.50 = $1)
1  Meloku the Clouded Mirror ($1.50)
4  Ravenous Trap (4x $0.50 = $2)
1  Rude Awakening ($0.50)
2  Shattering Spree (2x $1.50 = $3)
15 sideboard cards ($61)

Total, Main & Side: $227.25

The combo in this deck is pretty straightforward – Scapeshifting for 6 mountains and a Valakut deals 18 damage to your opponent, or 2 Valakuts is 36. The rest of the deck is devoted to accelerating to 7 or 8 lands, finding Scapeshift and keeping your opponent off their game plan while you do so. There is a certain coolness about winning off of lands, whether its Barbarian Ring, Urza’s Factory, or in this case Valakut. That said, I don’t know what this deck does against Martyr of Sands?

Putting aside the lands, this deck is by far the cheapest available from the Worlds top decks. Its 37 nonland maindeck cards total only $29.25! But the lands, oh my, the lands. Being a land-based combo deck I shouldn’t really be surprised, but they push this deck up past All-In Red and even past Hypergenesis in price. Its possible the land base could be rejiggered to be mostly basics, but the blue would probably have to be cut entirely and the deck changed considerably for this to work. As it is I don’t think this deck offers very good performance for the price when compared to similarly priced combo decks. It did go 5-1 at Worlds so don’t take this as condemnation of the archetype, but for a similar price you can get even stronger decks.

Bang for your Buck: * *

Super cheap spells can’t hide a very expensive manabase.

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The Price of Extended: All-In Red

Apologies for the lateness of todays post, I’ve just finished my Christmas shopping and boy is it busy out there! Today we’re going to look at one of my shining hopes for the budget end of extended, All-In Red. If Rocket-Powered Turbo Slug were to play a game of magic, this is the deck he would use.

All-In Red

Benedikt Klauser, 5-1

2009 World Championships, Extended

18  Mountain

18 lands ($0.00!!)

`

4  Demigod of Revenge (4x $4 = $16)

4  Deus of Calamity (4x $2 = $8)

3  Magus of the Moon (3x $4 = $12)

4  Simian Spirit Guide (4x $0.30 = $1.20)

15 creatures ($37.20)

`

4  Blood Moon (4x $2 = $8)

4  Chalice of the Void (4x $9 = $36)

4  Chrome Mox (4x $15 = $60)

4  Desperate Ritual (4x $0.50 = $2)

3  Empty the Warrens (3x $0.25 = $0.75)

4  Rite of Flame (4x $1 = $4)

4  Seething Song (4x $1 = $4)

27 other spells ($114.75)

`

Maindeck (60 cards): $151.95

`

3  Dead // Gone (3x $1 = $3)

4  Figure of Destiny (4x $8 = $32)

1  Magus of the Moon ($4)

4  Relic of Progenitus (4x $1 = $4)

1  Shattering Spree ($1.50)

2  Tormod’s Crypt (2x $1.25 = $2.50)

15 sideboard cards ($45)

Total, Main & Side: $196.95

The deck has 3 components – fast mana, obscene threats and overwhelming disruption. By playing Chrome Moxes, exiling Spirit Guides and casting a ton of Rituals, All-In Red spends its cards to generate a big mana turn as early as possible, generally turn 1 or 2. This mana is used to power out threats like Deus of Calamity and disruptive permanents like Blood Moon. With the lack of basics in many decks they just can’t cope with a turn 1 Blood Moon, and few decks are fast enough to race against this one. Unfortunately it is not all roses, and this is where the “All-In” part of the deck has its downside – a single Path to Exile or similar answer for your one big threat can put you on a one way trip to Scooptown.

I am surprised at how expensive this deck turned out, given its dirt cheap manabase, but there are two obvious culprits for this expense. As has been the case in several decks so far, Chrome Mox and Chalice of the Void really push the price up – in this deck they make up over half the cost! Sideboard Figure of Destiny doesn’t help either, but apart from those 3 playsets the deck is very reasonable. Has anyone tested this deck yet? If so, how does it go without the Chrome Moxes, is it just terrible? I’m curious to know if it can be budgetized. This is not a bad choice to start with if you are just getting into extended – Chrome Mox and Chalice pop up all over the format, so if you decide to change decks a little way down the line you’ll be able to reuse your most expensive cards.

Bang for Your Buck: * * *

Two cards push this deck beyond the realm of the truly budget, but it is one of the cheapest competitive decks so far in the series.

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